STATE SUPPORT FOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN AS A PRIORITY MECHANISM FOR UKRAINE’S DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT AMIDST MODERN CHALLENGES

Abstract

This article analyzes the current critical demographic situation in Ukraine, which results from prolonged negative trends significantly exacerbated by the large-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation. The study covers key demographic indicators: a catastrophic decline in birth rates, an alarming increase in mortality rates, and unprecedented scale of mass migration processes, which have led to a systemic reduction in population size and a transformation of its age structure. Special attention is paid to analyzing the impact of military actions on demographic dynamics, including significant human losses and external migration. The mechanisms of state support for families with children, as defined in Ukraine’s Demographic Development Strategy until 2040 [1] and its Action Plan [2], are thoroughly examined. An analysis of the existing financial incentive policy, particularly childbirth benefits, has been conducted. It is established that the size of these payments has not been revised for eleven years and has effectively depreciated by 78% due to inflation and a lack of indexation, thus negating their effectiveness. It is proven that the decline in birth rates after 2014 was primarily caused by existential security and socio-economic challenges of the war, not by the «ineffectiveness» of the payments. The article also assesses the potential of the experimental project on basic social support [3]. It is shown that while this mechanism is important for social protection, its capabilities as a demographic stimulation tool are limited. It is emphasized that in 2024–2025, seven draft laws [4] were submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, three of which are alternative draft laws to increase childbirth benefits (ranging from UAH 50,000 to UAH 308,000, depending on the living wage for children under 6 or the minimum wage), but as of June 25, 2025, none of these draft laws have been adopted. New initiatives from the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine [4] regarding increasing childbirth benefits are analyzed. It is noted that the draft amendments to legislation, which underwent public discussion on the website of the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine, propose to set childbirth benefits at UAH 50,000 starting from January 1, 2026, which is the lowest amount among those proposed by other legislative initiative subjects. It is stated that such an insignificant increase (from UAH 41,280 to UAH 50,000) in childbirth benefits will not significantly affect the increase in birth rates or the strengthening of the country’s demographic potential. Based on the analysis, the necessity of a systemic and comprehensive approach to state support for families is substantiated, extending beyond solely financial incentives. This approach should integrate a range of interconnected measures: ensuring unconditional security and peace; creating conditions for economic stability and decent employment; and ensuring access to quality housing and social infrastructure. It is proposed that, to improve the country’s demographic situation, financial support should be sufficient, regularly indexed, and provided to all young families with children without exception. Special emphasis is placed on the need to introduce a progressive payment scale for the birth of second, third, and subsequent children to actively encourage multi-child families. Such a comprehensive strategy is the only realistic path for Ukraine’s demographic recovery and sustainable human development in the post-war period.