Antifragility and Crisis Resilience in Strategic Management of Agricultural Enterprises Under Global Risks.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive scientific rationale and quantitative modelling of strategies for managing antifragility and crisis resilience in Ukrainian agricultural enterprises in the face of escalating global risks. The research develops an integrated model that combines short–term crisis response with long–term strategic development. The methodology is based on a systems approach to risk analysis, incorporating official statistics, expert interview, and multifactor regression modeling of logistics costs. The methodology combines a systems–based risk analysis using official statistics, a single semi-structured interview with the director of LLC “Agropartner” (Ukraine), and multifactor modelling of logistics costs. A multiple linear regression of logistics –plus –storage costs per ton on diesel price, distance to port, enterprise scale, and an antifragility indicator was estimated using n=50 observations (2022–2023). Coefficient signs and significance are consistent with theory, and robustness checks confirm the results. The results demonstrate that integrating antifragility with resilience significantly reduces transportation and storage costs, while also enhancing financial efficiency under uncertainty. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a quantitative model that evaluates the effectiveness of antifragile measures in the Ukrainian context. The practical significance is the creation of a tool for agricultural enterprises to improve strategic planning, optimize logistics, and justify investment decisions, as well as to inform public policies aimed at strengthening the resilience of the agricultural sector.