Economic Modeling of Shelterbelt Land Use on Agricultural Production in Ukraine

Abstract

This study explores the impact of shelterbelt forest plantations on agricultural productivity in Ukraine. The purpose of this article is to investigate how forest belts and land use patterns affect crop yields and agricultural land use in Ukraine, and to compare these patterns with factors contributing to forest cover loss in EU countries in order to develop practical management recommendations. Using geoinformation modeling and correlation analysis, we examined the relationship between shelterbelt coverage and agricultural indicators, including land leasing, crop yields and the planted area under annual and biennial crops. The total area of agricultural land protected by these plantations amounted to 51.66 thousand hectares, generating an additional 206.64 thousand centners of grain annually. Given the average price of 12.23 euros per centner for cereals and legumes, the total economic effect was estimated at approximately 2.53 million euros per year. The study also presents theoretical and methodological approaches for mathematically modeling economic indicators of forestry land use, drawing on successful practices from the European Union regarding sustainable development under significant anthropogenic, economic, and climatic pressures. The results highlight that shelterbelt plantations, once established, are among the most cost-effective agronomic practices, offering long-term environmental and economic benefits for sustainable agricultural development.